As Afghanistan swirls into a whirlpool, it all looks so familiar: American soldiers, strangers in a strange land, a war with no borders and no geographic objectives, no capital to capture, no uniformed army to defeat, no more mission other than to "pacify" a whole civilization, to wins hearts and minds of people whose language, culture, hopes and fears are foreign.
The big difference is supposed to be that this time the people we are attacking are supposed to have been the source of the 9/11 attack, and, we are told, will be again. We've got to get them before they strike us again, is the line. And if we leave them alone, they'll have "sanctuaries," as if they do not already have sanctuaries.
It all reminds me of a very strange and haunting cartoon which every male of my generation remembers distinctly, "The Sunshine Makers," about a group of tiny elf like men who skulked around singing, "We're happy when we're sad." One of these black clad gnomes fires off an arrow at the white clad happy guys, who bombard these black guys into happiness.
It was an unsettling notion, even to a seven year old, the idea one group could bombard another into happiness, could by warfare convert them to love, could win their hearts and minds by bottled sunshine. Even as a child, the idea somewhere, deep down was disquieting. I had the feeling, "Get Real." I knew I didn't know much about the world, but I knew that cartoon felt not just bogus but dangerous.
There is an old saw about medical interns: The most dangerous intern is not the intern who does not know--it's the intern who does not know he does not know.
What I don't know about Afghanistan is titanic. I cannot even picture the place. It is a country of millions, I read, but the only images I've seen of it are dusty little villages with mud for streets. I've read about the poppy farmers and the drug trade which feeds the Taliban and Al Qaeda. I've read about their "elections." And I've read about Richard Holbrooke riding around the place, trying to apply the lessons he learned in Viet Nam.
But Mr. Holbrooke does not appear to have learned the big lesson of Viet Nam.
It may be we have to fight Al Qaeda, but sending in uniformed American troops looks to me like a show for the folks back home watching on their T.V.'s.
It is a continuation of the Bush era idea of strutting onto main street with guns slung low and looking for someone to shoot it out with.
Trouble is, Al Qaeda is too smart to strut down main street.
How do I know this? I can only guess. What would I do, if I were in the position of Al Qaeda or the Taliban? Would I expose myself? Or would I hid under a rock until I had a clear shot, maybe with a roadside improvised explosive device.
That I am woefully ignorant of Afghanistan does not necessarily mean I am wrong.
Richard Holbrooke can base his conclusions on experience talking to Americans and Afghanies on the ground. But that does not mean he is correct in thinking we can "win" a war of pacification there.
I am so ignorant, in fact, I have to rely on a fictional account of how an indigenous underclass deals with a more powerful ruling armed force--as in The Wire, which was fictional only in form, not in understanding.
The fact is, no occupation force, whether it is made of soldiers or police can pacify a local population unless the people living in the territory have very good reason to want to help.
What would I do?
I think I'd get all the uniformed soldiers out of the country. Then I'd send in the guys who can collect information, who can blend in, who can listen in, if we have enough of those guys. And when Osama, and the Taliban peep their heads up, maybe then we'll have a shot at them. It's the difference between listening on the wire, understanding what the mopes are thinking and planning and being very patient, not breaking down doors until you have the top guys. Whenever I see stacks of cocaine or heroin in front of top brass displaying the haul, which they always say has a "Street Value," of a billion dollars, I think of The Wire and know we are being sold and manipulated. It's not the stuff you pick up on the street that means anything. It's the people you don't see behind it who mean something.
Another analogy is medical: what you see on the skin is what catches your eye, but if you don't dig down to the real source of the problem, you are just amusing yourself and deceiving the patient into thinking you have cured him when all you've done is strut.
Of course, if the President did remove the troops, the frat boy Republicans would howl about how he's caved in and when there's another attack, it'll be all his fault and he'll lose the election.
So it's not likely we'll see the soldiers coming home any time soon.
But that's democracy. Your President can only be as good as the people who elect him will allow.
As Tommy Carcetti once said, "Tomorrow, I'll wake up in Baltimore and the election will be over. And I'll still be white."
Which is to say, you can't change deeply rooted biases of the electorate, even with reasoned arguments.
Sunday, September 27, 2009
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